Make a Guess

Theyain Riyu's picture
"Oh my god, theres LEMON JUICE IN MY EYE! DX"

Location: In a small little box in your small little mind.

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Who here whats to guess with me at how many Attendees AC is going to have this year?

Last year there was a total of 2,849 attendees...

So how many people do you think are going to be here next year?

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Unclekage's picture
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Lots!

Baker Bunny's picture

I see Uncle Kage counts in troll...

I must agree troll mathematics is much easier and you always get the exact number

desteredra's picture
"Little dragon. Big mouth."

Location: Philadelphia area, PA

*chuckles and nods* Warm troll, no less. Who knew warmed trolls and insect chemists share a number system?

FennecusKitsune's picture
Location: Brown University (school) & LI, NY (home)

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I'd bet more than last year. Somewhere like (lots + 5)^2 might be a good estimate Laughing out loud

Raider's picture
"Think positive thoughts and positive things WILL happen!"

Location: Rochester,NY,United States

I'll say about 5522, that should be about right Cool Cool I like double numbers, I know it sounds weird, but that is what I am.

K.P.'s picture
"Anthrocon Programming Director"

Location: Orlando, FL

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5522?!?!?!?!

O_O

Don't try to give me a heartattack! The Quik-E-Mart across the street would run out of Tasty Cakes by Friday afternoon!

*runs around screaming with paws flailing*

KP

Theyain Riyu's picture
"Oh my god, theres LEMON JUICE IN MY EYE! DX"

Location: In a small little box in your small little mind.

Website: [Link]

Wasn't the store out of food by Friday morning?

Gushousekai195's picture
"One of the several artists in the Freaks! Movement - that's what I am!"

Location: Huntington Beach, California

At least 3,005 (the "5" is my mother, little sister, youngest stepsister, my stepdad, and I).

--

My name is pronounced like this: GOO-show-SEH-kiye.

The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

I'd like to be logical about this... but, unfortunately, the only ones who would understand me are TigerWolf, Uncle Kagé, and possibly Bennie. Furs and logic do not mix.

Anyway... *breathes in* here goes nothing.

If we average the general population increase between each Anthrocon, from 1997 to 2007, then I'm guessing it's around 300... can't be sure since I can't seem to find the attendance history. Anyway.

2,489 to 2,849... Might we actually make it past 3,100? Can we handle it?
*found something*

1997: 0,300
1998: 0,600 (+300)
1999: 0,842 (+242)
2000: 1,128 (+286)
2001: 1,457 (+329)
2002: 1,648 (+191)
2003: 1,949 (+301)
2004: 2,404 (+455)
2005: 2,370 (-034)
2006: 2,489 (+119)
2007: 2,849 (+360)

Average rate of increase: 254.9 (Okay, not quite 300.)

My next guestimate: 3,104. (Pretty damn close to 3,100!)

We can do it!

*edit: math error*

Theyain Riyu's picture
"Oh my god, theres LEMON JUICE IN MY EYE! DX"

Location: In a small little box in your small little mind.

Website: [Link]

Who needs logic? WE'RE FURRIES!

I was originally going to do something like that, but I decided I am to lazy to do such a thing.

What I was going to do was going to do was figure out what the average percentage growth was.

Jaron Berry's picture
""You corned my punch!""

Location: Milkyway galaxy, Alpha quadrant, Sector 001, Sol system, Third planet, United States, Virginia, Woodbridge.

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Ok!, i crunched the numbers and did a little probability work and i came out with...
3066.181 as being the base. the most i came out with was 3311 and the least 2809, given these are the extremes. but in a more realistic sense. i would say between 3070 and 3120.

Giza's picture
"100% usynlig - som en ninja!"

Location: Ardmore, PA

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Uh, no.

One of the things we've learned from our years at Anthrocon (and from observing other cons) is that predicting attendance is very difficult.

For example, in 2005 we had bad weather over a substantial part of the US, which caused cancellations of many flights and prevented members from arriving. In 2006, we were at the end June, which caused conflicts with people still in school taking final exams. In 2007, we were over the 4th of July, which made it easier for some people to attend (free vacation day from work) while others in the service industry HAD to work the 4th of July and could not attend.

So, just comparing past attendance based is numbers can end up being very different from actual attendance. Also, we do not want to create any false expectations caused by such predictions.

 
--
My LiveJournal - My Website

The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

My predictions were just for fun, Giza...

But being the largest furry convention in the world, continuously, expectations from everyone will unfortunately (or fortunately) be very high, true or false.

I get some furs who tell me that Anthrocon is too big. Some want us to hit registration levels in the 10,000+ (I fear the day).

GreenReaper's picture
"Rambling norn"

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Last time I checked, a figure of 10,000 was actually possible after another decade of reasonably strong compound growth. A more conservative linear estimate is 5,000 by 2016, and possibly 10,000 by 2035. The answer probably lies somewhere in between. I'd tend towards the conservative estimate unless furry starts taking off commercially like anime (I'm not convinced this would be ideal, but that's another discussion).

It is possible that we will hit a limit but we have obviously not hit it yet. Anthrocon's growth is relatively modest compared with some of those playing catch-up, and new cons are starting up every year, averaging attendance of 300 (a far cry from the 65 at ConFurence 0). My guess is AC's growth is limited by the total furry audience, which appears to be growing at a steady 10-15% per year, but there could be another factor . . .

Furs may be choosing to attend (and found) local cons in preference to Anthrocon. This is arguably a better approach considering the cost/benefit ratio, and certainly considering transport costs, though AC offers facilities they cannot hope to match. For example, Furry Connection North has quad rooms at $67/night. Registration is $25, so if you live in the area and bring your own food, costs for a four-day attendance could literally be less than $100. This is good, as the economy as a whole is not great here and many local furs are not well-off. Some can even drive to and from a local con and stay at home which is hard for most AC attendees. I do not see this causing AC's attendance to drop, though - it just means it grows a bit slower.

A really big convention could certainly be held in Pittsburgh - there are at least eight hotels in striking distance, and the convention center itself has 236,900 sq. ft. available (PDF), while we're using just 45,100. Personally I'm glad AC isn't growing too fast, as staffing could be an issue - there are only so many skilled con volunteers out there. Having more cons could help with this as it provides a slightly lower-pressure training ground (you do not have 1,000 furs waiting if someone misses a video cue or the GoH goes missing).

The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

Your analytical skills amaze me, GreenReaper, but furries are very well known for one thing:

Sheer randomness.

As Giza had put it, and others in wording to a similar effect, no one can nor will ever be able to predict the total attendance of any future convention, anywhere.

For all we know, we could hit 10,000 at next year's AC, and Uncle Kagé will need to make an emergency trip back to his lab to invent some sort of new pain killer...

(Perish the thought.)

GreenReaper's picture
"Rambling norn"

Website: [Link]

I think Kage's graph below suggests that furries are actually quite predictable. There was that quirk a couple of years back, but there were reasons for that. Overall growth has been steady.

It is always possible that things will change significantly in the future. But these will either be due to larger (macro? Eye-wink) changes whose effects are quite predictable, or short term outliers that are understandable only with hindsight and which do not have a continuous effect ("Oh, MFF jumped up 35% that year because . . .").

While these outliers may well have an effect this year and in the future, I think in the current environment it would take significant changes to raise Anthrocon's attendance by 35% in any one year - let alone 251%. As the largest furry convention, it is being limited - to at least some extent - by the size of the fandom itself. Beyond that there are other limiting factors which tend to stay relatively constant, such as the cost of attending.

Now, if air travel, hotel costs and transit times all fell by half, or everyone got not just one day but the whole week off, that might make a significant difference . . . but then you can see what I mean by macro changes. Smiling

Unclekage's picture
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Being a scientist, I could not resist making a graph.

From this chart it appears as though 2004 had an unusually high attendance, possibly due to Stan Sakai's first appearance there, since Stan, like, totally roxxorz the houssorz.

Exkhaniber's picture

Quote:
Being a scientist, I could not resist making a graph

Nice graph Smiling [graphs rule!]

-There is no truth

Jesse's picture
"Did you ever see a.. HEY THERES ONE BEHIND YOU! Aww, it flew away."

Location: United States Wisconsin

Did...did you get that from the Anthrocon history page...? Or did you make it first then get it posted o.O (xD)
___________________________________________________

Head, $600. Suit $1000. Going to Anthrocon, no, its not priceless.

Unclekage's picture
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Um...I made it and then posted it on the history page. Giza gave me special powers to do that.

Duncan da Husky's picture
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Wow! What other special powers can Giza give? I'd like to be able to fly, please! (it'd make those trips back and forth to the DLCC so much easier)

---
Tom Brady/Duncan da Husky
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For fastest replies to questions about Artists Alley, e-mail me at

castaway2000's picture
"i like shiny things dont we all :P"

Location: bellevue, wa usa

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well i am new, and i am coming to the con, so yeah ad one more to thoes numbers.

BlackJack's picture
Location: NYC

IMHO,
AnthroCon attendance continues to increase because:
A) those who attend are likely to return because it's great
B) those who attend refer it to others who have never heard of it
C) its reputation gets around, so strangers start to hear about it and attend

I first showed in 2005, and didn't really think of myself as furry at the time.
But I had a great time, and it was close to me.
(Which, of course, changed the next year, but it's JUST close enough to not need
me to fly there.)

The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

A) Yes. This will be my third time at AC. I found AC to be a great place, and I'm never bored. They'll give me something to do if I can't find anything to do.

B) I've referred perhaps 3 dozen people.

C) I am one person, who told about 36 people, and each of those people will tell 36 people, and if all 2,849 people tell 36 people who tell 36 people, then we're looking at 3,225,744 people that know about Anthrocon.

And at least 0.1% may possibly attend! 3,226 versus the projected 3,104 I had earlier is my prediction, our numbers may very well be between those numbers.

Scary, innit?

Sgt Steve's picture
"When the sh*t hits the fan, we're the first blade."

Location: 12 scenic miles from Hell

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3115

I have spoken.

Kittynoy's picture
Location: London

My random number generators claim it's going to be 2926.
And as we all know, random number generators are right... *Kittynoy pushes a button* 72.06% of the time.
Noy

theonethatbites's picture
"WARNING: MAY CONTAIN RABBIES"

Location: the squiggle in your eye

enought to brake the records again

Jaron Berry's picture
""You corned my punch!""

Location: Milkyway galaxy, Alpha quadrant, Sector 001, Sol system, Third planet, United States, Virginia, Woodbridge.

Website: [Link]

Yes!, Finaly finished! *takes deep breaths*
Ok, by using future precipitation probability outlooks for the whole nation and the major populated parts of Canada for May, June and July provided by the National Weather Service, there is a probability for the extreme North West parts of the nation to have a decreased amount of precipitation, thus, improving airline delays and cancellations for that part of the country. In the East ,however, there is not sufficient data to make a probability outlook at this time. But by filling in the gaps with percentage means of cancellations from this year and past in major airliners in the U.S. by consumer reports there is a 1.7% to 2.1% chance of flight cancellations. By feeding that information into a wonderful spreadsheet I Re-predict, using my original base calculation of 3066.181, 3067.7 to 3117 attendees. But, this is only a prediction and its just for fun.

Aeon's picture
""Put your hands up.... oh.... I didnt see your cast, sorry =<^^>=""

Location: Southern NJ

over 3000 ^^ usually conventions grow about 5-600 attendees a year.

Giza's picture
"100% usynlig - som en ninja!"

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The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

Is something scaring you, my dear Giza? Eye-wink

Jesse's picture
"Did you ever see a.. HEY THERES ONE BEHIND YOU! Aww, it flew away."

Location: United States Wisconsin

xD you always have a web link!

___________________________________________________

Head, $600. Suit $1000. Going to Anthrocon, no, its not priceless.

Xydexx's picture
"I am pony, hear me squeak."

Location: Leesburg, VA

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I'm guessing close to 3,250. Folks seem to have had a great time last year, and we definitely have the room to expand now.

Karl Xydexx Jorgensen
Publications Director

Unclekage's picture
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We can use SCIENCE!!

Graphing the number of people vs. the year of operation (with the exception of 2004 which we shall treat as an outlying value), we can generate a line with the equation y=248.55x + 121.58 (R-squared=0.9943). So I predict that in 2008 (our 12th year) we will have 3104.2 attendees.

GreenReaper's picture
"Rambling norn"

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Is the 0.2 going to be on a day pass, or are you thinking of one of the Groatlings? Smiling

The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

Quote:
Unclekage said:

We can use SCIENCE!!

Graphing the number of people vs. the year of operation (with the exception of 2004 which we shall treat as an outlying value), we can generate a line with the equation y=248.55x + 121.58 (R-squared=0.9943). So I predict that in 2008 (our 12th year) we will have 3104.2 attendees.

Hence, my first guesstimate, 3,104. Dead on. O_O;;

I'm scared now.

Theyain Riyu's picture
"Oh my god, theres LEMON JUICE IN MY EYE! DX"

Location: In a small little box in your small little mind.

Website: [Link]

Science, what have you done?

Sgt Steve's picture
"When the sh*t hits the fan, we're the first blade."

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You're off by 10.8. I still say 3115.

Theyain Riyu's picture
"Oh my god, theres LEMON JUICE IN MY EYE! DX"

Location: In a small little box in your small little mind.

Website: [Link]

How can you be off by 10.8 people? 0.o

Giza's picture
"100% usynlig - som en ninja!"

Location: Ardmore, PA

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Easy. Someone has a 2-year old with a pituitary disorder.

 
--
My LiveJournal - My Website - My MySpace

The Sonic God's picture
"What is this "logic" you speak of?"

Location: New Brighton, MN, USA

Website: [Link]

The 0.8 of the 10.8 people can be viewed a a secondary possibility of events: If read as a percentage, then 80% of the time there will be one more person. 20% of the time, there will be one person less.

Regardless of one greater or one less, one thing is 100% certain:

Anthrocon rocks!

EaglesFlight's picture
"Shame on me if you must read this to know that I am a Christian."

Location: Walker, LA

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Someone could be 7 months 6 days into their pregnancy?

Sgt Steve's picture
"When the sh*t hits the fan, we're the first blade."

Location: 12 scenic miles from Hell

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Easy. Kage used science to project a rational number, 3104.2. Being a Dorsai, I'm more used to body counts and therefore use integers. But also being a scientist, I realize the need to speak to Kage in his own terms. Hence 10.8.

Or maybe one of the bodies is only 80% dead, like Wesley.

Exkhaniber's picture

My guess is that next year we will have 2,913. Although there is tremendous interest in the con, two factors will be keeping some people from attending. In May, a trans-Atlantic flight is going to crash and a cause for it will not be announced until mid August. Concerns over flight safety will keep only a few people away, but mainly the problem is going to be furs trying to enter the United States itself! The crash raises national security concerns and causes major problems at Customs.

Also, just a week before the con begins the Bus Driver's Union will declare a sudden strike, leaving many without a way to get to the con. And many of those left behind are the room masters, resulting in lots of furs roaming the lobby at the hotel seeking crash space. This results in many furs clamoring for a "last-minute rooming" board in the lobby of the hotel. Although Kage initially rejects the idea, the other furs won't let the matter rest until Kage finally gives in, and shortens the message board on the third floor to accommodate one panel for the "LMR" board the following year. In its first year of use, it is actually quite a success. Many furs find crash space within the Westin, and room-masters with unreliable roomies have a second chance to recoup their loss.

This same con, due to the surprise that any of them had the balls to show up the first time, more 4-channers show up to protest. Again, Kage goes out there with a diplomatic smile on his face, however his warmth is not returned. The channers take it as a personal insult and some tempers flare. Although no-one is harmed, the police arrive to escort the channers out of the area.

With the US economy declining, less furs find the money to make it to AC09 (2,754). The attendance drops a bit, however the Westin fills more rooms than ever. Jamie integrates the "LMR" board into the hotel functions for the duration of the con, and has an attendee post hourly updates on the board as to room openings within the hotel. This helps fill space within the Westin that otherwise would have been vacant.

This year even more channers show up and cause a problem. Tired of seeing them, and definitely tired of hearing furs whine about them, the Gryphon 2 collects volunteers for a Furry Army of Doom and assaults the channers. In the ensuing geek-verses-geek battle, two channers end up with severe enough injuries to end up in the hospital. Absolutely pissed at 2's actions, Kage bans him from the con indefinitely.

By AC10 (1,977), the US economy has continued to tumble. Due to financial problems and fears over the supposed "family-friendly" atmosphere degrading due to 2's assault, a lot less furs are attending, and more channers show up to protest than ever before. Luckily for the con, the FBI is after myself at this point (however I anticipated this move and had fled to Tibet). In their quest to capture me, they go undercover and buy memberships then casually attend the convention while keeping an eye out. By the time the channers show up to protest, the FBI is having such a good time that they call in backup units to black-bag the channers whom are then never seen again.

This year, in order to energize memberships again, RoninOtter joins forces with Dex and together they put on an unbelievable techo-dance skit for the masquerade. This single-handedly doubles AC11's membership.

By AC11 (4,120), the US economy is slowly but surely getting better. With AC now a safer place with built-in undercover FBI protection, membership starts growing again. However, shortly after the con is over, Switzerland declares war on Europe and conquers it within 72 hours (military leaders in the field were warned, however they thought it was just a joke). Ironically, it was during that invasion that many people finally figured out what all those little tools on the knives were for.

The US economy at this point is in no position to fight a war, and most of US money is in Swiss bank accounts to begin with. The US adopts an official position of neutrality and backs away from the problems. However, Russia and China, who are not intimidated, pressure Switzerland to back down and return Europe to what it had been. Switzerland however does not back down.

A week thereafter, Russia and China both launch an offensive from the East to push the Swiss back. At the same time, Canada surprises the world by declaring war and sending forces to attack from the west. However, both offensives are fought to stalemates.

2 Gryphon at this point, really pissed off from missing Dex's skit at AC10 and missing two cons now, reforms his Furry Army of Doom. He stops by Kage's house to seek help from his friend. Kage volunteers his services as a master chemist armed with various forms of laughing and sleeping gasses. Now with a small army under his command, 2 splits his forces in two to attack from the North and the South.

Armed with only a pink Prismacolor pencil and a burlap sack full of pennies, 2 launches from Iceland and starts with taking back Britain. From there he then takes back the Netherlands, then heads towards Switzerland proper through Germany (who are all in awe of the irony in all this).

However, 2 has his right-hand woman attack from the south. She lands on Sicily first, then takes back Italy and attacks Switzerland from below. The French call her "The second Blitzkrieger". You and I know her as Grandma Kage. Armed with only a leather jacket and a Harley, she flies through the countryside uncontested.

During the assault on the Swiss HQ, Giza hacks into their networks and shuts down all of their communications while Jibba distracts four divisions of troops with world-class dancing. By the time the dust settles, the Swiss Army is defeated and Europe returned to normal. It is discovered that 4-chan was behind the Swiss' attempt to take over Europe. The entire war, from the Swiss offensive to 2's counterattack, was accomplished without a single casualty on either side. It would become known as the most humane war ever.

For their accomplishments during the war, everyone involved in the furry army receive the Medal of Honor. While being given his, 2 launches into an impromptu rant and comic routine that wins the hearts and minds of the public. This becomes the foundation for his campaign to become president, and he goes on to win the election in 2012. Kage forgives 2 for assaulting the channers and allows him back into the con. For the next 8 years with 2 as president, 2 himself founds a furry con that is held at Camp David.

For his role in bringing the entire event to a close humanely, Kage receives a case of Japan's best Sake. Giza gets a job in the Pentagon with good benefits, and Jibba gets a spot on TV to show the world how to groove. Grandma Kage gets featured as Harley's poster image.

Due to the immense press around the entire war, the furry fandom receives fantastic media coverage. However, also because of this, membership keeps doubling every year. The meaning behind the fandom and its uniqueness get lost in the crowds as everyone tries to be a part of what rapidly becomes mainstream.

Kage soon retires from con chair and founds a spinoff convention. Various staff members from AC also start their own cons in an attempt to get smaller cons going again, but each con soon gets crowded beyond practicality.

There was supposed to be a point in this somewhere but I think I lost it. Oh well. Remember, you heard it here first!

-There is no truth

Exkhaniber's picture

And for my next trick, I will predict the past! You won't BELIEVE what's going to happen in 1988!

...can you tell I was really bored at work today? The sad part is that it only took me about 6 seconds to come up with that entire story, but almost two hours to type it all out.

Also! I hope nobody gets offended by all that! Especially the Swiss! I was just looking to make the most ridiculous story ever, and one must admit that the world's most neutral country taking over is just ridiculous.

Also for the people I mentioned in there, my apologies, I don't want to offend you either. I did my best to make sure everyone's names were attached to something relatively harmless yet stereotypical of them. And well, this is a silly little story on a forum, not like I'm publishing it Smiling

So apologies in advance if anyone did take offense! I hope everyone gets a good laugh out of it though.

-There is no truth

Unclekage's picture
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Actually, the first half of it is chilling!

iSKUNK's picture
Location: Cambridge, MA

John Titor, is that you?

-- 
iSKUNK!

Exkhaniber's picture

Who is that?

-There is no truth

iSKUNK's picture
Location: Cambridge, MA

Google him Eye-wink

-- 
iSKUNK!

Exkhaniber's picture

AH! ROGUE AGENT! Must terminate him!!!

Okay, seriously, I just wanted a quick exercise in impromptu creative writing, a bit of outlandish humor, nonsensical events, and so forth. That's one of the reasons my little story starts out as mostly serious and just gets ludicrous as it progresses Smiling

(some parts I did see as semi-feasable. The "LMR" board idea is something I see as not inevitable in itself, but the suggestion itself being made is. I don't know if it has already been suggested, but it seems like something furs would ask for. And to a degree it does make sense, although I'd rather not see it come to fruition. But, in my little story, when implemented I saw the outlandish possibility of the Westin helping out with it because it could, in theory, fill up some empty rooms)

Actually I cut a lot of it out because I didn't want to create a single post too long for people to read. Admittedly it is still quite long, but not nearly as long as it started out as (which is why there's a lot of details and references that never get tied up. Those parts were cut. For instance, there was going to be a part where Kage gets voted as "most likely to turn the population into badgers").

However, if a trans-Atlantic airliner DOES crash in May, I WILL be fleeing to Tibet. Because I'll place bets on someone telling the FBI that someone mentioned it here on the forums beforehand. And I'd rather not be black-bagged and sent to Switzerland to start WWIII.

And as I said before, I'm hoping that I got some people to laugh at the sillier parts of the story. In the end, the point was to try to get a few smiles.

-There is no truth

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