Graphs of Anthrocon 2014 (and 2013) Pre-registrations
Now that pre-registration for Anthrocon 2014 is closed, I thought I'd put together some graphs of our registration data.
As expected, there is always a big rush in the final week of pre-registration, especially on the final day itself. Here's what that looks like:
Seems like a pretty big spike in early June, right? Well, the spike becomes a lot smaller when both pre-registration and on-site registrations are plotted on the same graph.
Here's the same graph, but with Anthrocon 2013 registration data:
See that huge spike on the right? That's the on-site registrations, which are a multiple of our final days of pre-registration.
Here are the months of June and July in 2013 in more detail:
The 4 days on the far right are Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday registrations respectively.
I hope this post illustrates why we advise people to pre-register each year.
I freely admit that I'm not much of a data scientist, so these graphs may be a bit simplistic. Are there more advanced graphs anyone would be interested in seeing? Let me know!
Oh, and in case anyone was curious, the final badge number for Anthrocon 2014 Pre-registration was...
I couldn't make this up if I tried.
See you all at the con.
If only one more person would have pre-regged...
That's close enough to a milestone, if I could say anything about it.
Fascinating. A graph showing cumulative registration numbers would be interesting. I.e., days on the X axis, running total on the Y axis.
That might explain a problem I'm having with the charts, especially the second one. I'm not a data scientist either (just an engineer who's had calculus).
Note that I'm not accusing anybody of falsifying anything.
The "area under the curve" of the on-site regs looks to be much higher than that of the pre-regs, but 5570 (total 2013 attendance) minus 3981 preregs (neglecting blocks of badge numbers that went unused) equals 1589 on-site, or much less than the pre-regs.
Is this just a case of the sum of a lot of (a few per day) pre-regs adding up to that majority of badge numbers (i.e., discrete data (for which "area under the curve" doesn't apply) vs continuous data), or am I missing something?
The representation of the curve as a continuous line is misleading. There are individual discrete data points along the way, with a null-space in between them. Area under the curve is meaningless because of that null space.
Integrating our curve presumes that the number of data points increases to infinity, which (thank God) it does not.
I think it'd be more effective to compare Pre-reg 2013 and Pre-reg 2014 data versus Pre-reg 2013 to All of It 2014. The spikes and trends would compare more neatly.
Some of these spikes are thigns we knew intuitively, but it's good to see them in graph form: The "They're open!" rush, the late-December spike befor prices go up on January 1, the late-January spike for folks to get Supersponsor memberships and thus Advance Hotel stuff.
what was prereg for 2013? I forget
The last prereg badge # for 2013 was 3981.
LOL This is great. So.. Taking bets on number final number attending?
The odds are on 'Pretty close to last year's numbers'. Somewhere from 5,400 to 5,800.
I dunno .. that new meatball place might bring in a few more meatballs than normal.
Wow, I'm number 3989, I was one of the last 10 people to prereg. That's awesome! This is gonna be a good year.
Next year, you could try to be one of the first 10 people to Pre-reg, maybe? (Waiting until the last minute can be risky!)
That's why I got in at #251. :3
WOW !!! Thats alot of hungry furs to feed. I hope the resturants can all handle us this year !
I still remember Anthrocon 2005 at the Wyndham Franklin, Thursday before the convention started I wandered around to the Wawa on Arch Street and got some essentials because 1. I grew up walking the streets of Center City Philly as my mom worked there and I knew it was there and 2. I knew that if I wanted anything, I'd need to get it *then*.
A friend wanted to go by, so I wandered by on Saturday and they were completely cleaned out...
-slowly raises hand- I would have been #4000 but fell asleep ;3; I LET DOWN THE TRIBE