Hello, my name is Hurricane Earl! D:
Well, as a resident of central NJ, I am quite concerned at this monster storm's potential brush along the coast. It's so huge now that even if the eye stays 100 miles off shore, we're looking at near hurricane force winds in my area!
Not to mention that my great aunt's house is on one of the barrier islands, near Seaside, NJ. We may have to evacuate everything from the house that we can fit into all our cars on Wed-Thurs. Storm surge will almost certainly wash over the low-lying sand islands, and winds there will be the strongest.
It will pass by NJ likely as a Cat. 3 hurricane, the strongest hurricane to reach the area since the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944. Given how much damage was caused by The Perfect Storm of 1991, a large but still weaker storm than Earl, we must prepare for catastrophic damage!
I urge anyone along the East Coast, from NC to Mass, to take this storm VERY seriously and prepare for the worst! If it misses us, we can breathe a sigh of relief. If it hits, well, then at least we did everything we could to prepare beforehand! Afterwards it's a little too late.
The difference there, OG, is that, in general, the southern states tend to be better prepared for hurricane-level weather than the northern ones. Not surprising, since NJ, etc. don't get hit as often. When they do, the infrastructure isn't designed to take the beating.
I'd hate to see what a Category 3 would do to my area. (Then again, for a Category 3 to make it to Northern Ohio it would probably have to be a strong Category 5 (is there a Category 6?) at landfall, and anything it hit before us would be (soggy) toast.)
There is no Category 6. Cat 5 is defined as sustained wind speed of over 155 MPH, with no high cutoff point. As for OG's Hurricane Party, I remember Hurricane Camille when over 200 people decided to sit it out and party on the Gulf Coast. There was one survivor, IIRC. Staying in the path of a hurricane when you have any means of getting out of its way endangers your life.
Well, I don't know about anyone else, but even I wouldn't be silly enough to sit outdoors, on the beach, when a cat 4 or 5 was about to run aground. Storm Surge, anyone?
I was only 7 when Hugo hit in 89, and I was scared to pieces of the wind and rain - but anything else after that was childs play, and fun times were had. It's interesting to note for me that any actual emergencies that my family had due to weather were never with the hurricanes, just random heavy storms that came by; the biggest being the Winter Storm of 93, that caused a tree to fall on our house and seriously injure my brother (who is fine now).
I actually have a BBQ planned this coming Sunday (before we knew Earl was headed this way), and it may turn into a hurricane party!
My terse reply may have given the wrong impression. The people I mentioned in Camille were not partying on the beach itself, they were in a small hotel some distance away. The storm surge basically knocked the hotel off its foundations and the swirling water demolished it. In short, hurricanes need to be taken seriously. Even better, we at least can tell they're coming and estimate where they'll go with some accuracy, unlike tornadoes and earthquakes.
Ah, I see, sorry for the misunderstanding. Yes, hurricanes aren't to be taken lightly, and anyone should stay well out of the way of an oncoming surge. I was lucky enough to live well enough away from any surges, and it is the same of where I live now.
I must apologize somewhat: I repeated the story as I heard it at the time and that story was apparently inaccurate. If you look at the Wikipedia entry for Hurricane Camille, they discuss the story and point out the inaccuracies in my version. However, the destruction of the hotel is noted in the pictures associated with the corrected version of the story and is backed up by before and after photographs. The hotel was completely destroyed.
Last time i remember living somewhere directly affected by a hurricane, the power went out and the water filtration system died, so half the town spent 2-4 days with no clean drinking water and no electricity in the midst of north carolina summer heat. If my family wanted to cook something, we had to do it over a can of sterno.
We were...somewhat less than thrilled.
if this hurricane happens to hit NJ head on, my town will face a beating it wont ever forget. not for a very long time. & im talkin about a place that floods every time it rains.
like what you guys said, we havent had a hurricane since 1930s. our houses are more designed for all types of weather from snow to some massive heavy rain (& in some cases, tornadoes), not only hurricanes. there are elevated houses in my town (including mine), but the houses a 3 minute drive away from here are even higher due to the river in their backyards. a hurricane would drown those homes, including the train station.
...im so ready for this. >D
I'm in South Jersey about 35 miles inland in a mobile home on a heavily wooded lot.
I'm keeping a real close eye on this thing. I've been Checking the NOAA website regularly.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I'm pretty sure we have someone here on the list from Manahawkin.
I can't imagine the traffic trying to get across the causeway from LBI.
It looks like Earl is taking the most westward track of the projected path, which means a direct hit on NC's Outer Banks/Cape Hattaras region. There is now also the chance of a direct landfall on Long Island, NY.
It could still turn suddenly eastward, as storms have done. But, with the different pressure areas steering it moving in unpredictable ways, it could just as well turn more westward. All we can do here is batten down as much as possible and hope for the best.
I couldn't convince my cousin and great aunt to move as much as they could out of their house in Lavallette, NJ. It's a very low-lying sand island and will almost certainly be over-washed if Earl gets as close as it's now threatening to. I'd hate to see them lose everything, but there's nothing more I can do if they don't wish to be cautious. :/
If they won't listen to you, they'll certainly listen to the cops as they come knocking door to door telling everyone to get the heck out of dodge! By that time though, all they can do is save their own skins. Items are replaceable, lives aren't.
Dare I say it?
It looks like Earl may have turned just enough to miss a direct hit on NC and NJ. Long Island isn't out of the woods yet, and New England certainly is still dead in the hurricane's sights, but south of there may just get a minor hit.
Now, there are 2 tricky little weather systems that could change things again depending on what they decide to do. There is a big upper-level low swirling down out of Canada. If that bends the top of the cold front westward a bit around itself, it could slow down the top advance of the cold front enough to let Earl resume a straight-northward track... straight into New York City. Also, there is a little dip of a trough appearing to the northeast of Maine, pushing southward into the high-pressure ridge. If it is able to keep moving southward, the motion of air around it will deflect Earl slightly westward as it reaches NJ lattitude.
Given that Earl is so close to the coast, a minor wobble in the track could make a world of difference. I do believe the Outer Banks are safe from a direct hit now. Barring a sudden, unusual, and rapid westward shift, the eye will not pass over the barrier islands.
EDIT: The small trough northeast of Earl pulled eastward overnight and Earl has taken the eastward turn. We'll get some tropical storm force winds and some rain (which we actually need rather badly), but NJ is spared from any major impact. It looks like Long Island will be safe now too.
Well, that was... less than nothing.
It was just a hot, humid, slightly breezy day. Even the heaviest rains vanished the instant they got close to the Doom Drought Barrier on NJ!
So the storm fizzled, but we did need the rain badly, so it's still a negative. Now all the trees are dying and it's sad. :C
I don't know about you or the rest, but in Georgia where I'm from, Hurricanes are a chance to PARTY! XD Hurricane parties are all the rage. We'd have fun and games and (sometimes) booze, and if/when the power went out we'd just go to the board games or swap scary stories and the like. Always a blast!
Of course, we'd have all the necessities on hand in case an emergency were to occur.